Ultra-High-End San Francisco Market Analysis


My time in the FSPR sales office taught me the ins and outs of the ultra-high-end condominium market not only in San Francisco but similar markets across the U.S - NY, Miami, and LA.

San Francisco is beginning to acquire the global attention it's been longing for real estate wise, but it's moving a little slower than desired. With the turmoil in Hong Kong & taxation laws relating to Chinese property investments, the buying trend has shifted heavily from Asian buyers to U.S. based buyers. 

We saw a heavy influx of San Francisco local buyers, Marin county second home buyers, Silicon Valley tech executives and Easy Bay pied-a-terre shoppers, plus a handful of clientele from LA looking to stamp their mark on the Silicon Valley, and New Yorkers with business ventures on the west coast looking for a second home-base. Ultimately, the strength of local buyers is what you want to rely on when investing in a second home - global shifts are out of our control as servicers of the real estate market. While I predict the flood gates will open again to Chinese investment, the local market is very stable.

Interesting tidbits:

- We sold the third $3,000 per foot sale in Yerba Buena history 

- Average price per foot for all sales was $2,550

The most positive trend I noticed during my time at the Four Seasons was the growing appreciation Old San Francisco was starting to see in owning a condominium in a glass high rise building. In years past, glass high rise development was frowned upon by the gatekeepers of the city. Seeing that crowd (generalizing) come through the presentation suite, being blown away by the development and begin entertaining homeownership (as a secondary residence) gave me the evidence I needed that owning in a high rise in this city is a growing trend and will only continue to gain popularity. When the East Cut fully forms (park space & more local amenities), the surrounding neighborhood to The Avery and Fremont street, in general, will be seriously desirable and undersupplied.

Pertaining to re-sale value; a heavy reliance on off-shore investors and international buyers is the opposite of what a steady market desires. Granted it’s nice to have international awareness, it is even better to have an influx of local & generational wealth begin to pay attention to the high rise market. The more local buyer attention this micro-market has, the easier it will be to sell homes in buildings & the larger the buyer pool, ultimately leading to higher demand with a soon-to-be capped supply.

San Francisco has a multitude of micro-markets within the high rise market. To schedule a market review of your building or a building you’re interested in buying:


Article By Tim McMullen.

Tim McMullen